The honest record behind Dragonfly Lens — how our calls turned out, and the calls we passed on. Updated 2026-10-08
1 calls published · 0 resolved
| Call | Our confidence | Decided by | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Affairs Canada will not publish a new evaluation report covering its Ukraine programming before 1 April 2028. | 90% | 2028-04-01 | Open |
Each call is frozen when published; probability is our stated confidence the claim is true. Brier score: 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% earns - lower is better. Misses are shown, not removed.
How to read these. Every position is still open, so returns are unrealised and cumulative since entry (entries run 2013–2024). A multi-year hold shows a large total whether or not the call was recently good, so we lead with the annualised figure and state the average holding period. Cumulative totals are in the table below. Cumulative HIGH alpha vs SPY: +394.4 pts.
Honesty note: returns are buy-and-hold from each signal's publish date (some held since 2023, so the multi-year figures are large) and alpha is vs SPY. We lead with win-rate, median, and alpha — not a cherry-picked maximum.
The complete conviction-calibration table and every declined-call outcome are an Investor / Premium feature. The headline above is real and unedited — upgrade to audit every tier and every pass.
Upgrade →